Buy a Laptop Now or Wait for Black Friday 2026? Memory Prices Just Changed the Math

Every September, the advice is the same: skip the Labor Day sale, wait for November. When I checked Gartner’s own press release on the memory market, that advice does not hold up for electronics this particular year.

Why Is Black Friday No Longer the Safe Bet for Laptops This Year?

Black Friday has been the default ‘wait for it’ answer for electronics for years, but 2026 breaks that pattern because the cost increase is happening at the component level, not the retailer discount level. A store cannot discount its way around a 17% jump in the cost of the memory chips inside every laptop it sells.

When I checked Gartner’s own press release on this, the firm is not describing a temporary promotional cycle. It is describing a structural supply shift: AI data center demand is pulling DRAM and NAND flash manufacturing capacity away from consumer devices, and that capacity is not coming back by November.

Retailers still ran Labor Day laptop sales this year. TechTimes reported on September 1, 2026 that several Best Buy laptop models were priced ahead of an expected jump, framing the sale as a ‘buy now’ window rather than the usual ‘better deals are coming’ pitch.

How Much Will Memory Prices Actually Raise What You Pay?

Gartner forecasts combined DRAM and SSD prices will rise 130% by the end of 2026, pushing average PC prices up 17% compared with 2025 levels. Smartphone prices are projected to climb roughly 13% over the same stretch, for the same underlying reason.

That is not a rounding-error increase. On a $900 laptop, a 17% rise is around $150 — more than most Black Friday doorbusters ever discounted that model in the first place.

Memory now makes up close to a quarter of what a PC costs to build, according to Gartner’s analysis, up from about 16% in 2025. Manufacturers have much less room to absorb that increase quietly than they did a year ago.

Which Categories Should You Buy Now, and Which Can Wait?

Electronics and anything with a memory chip inside — laptops, tablets, some smart appliances — belong in the ‘buy now’ column this year. Fashion and seasonal clothing belong in the opposite column, because retailers still discount those categories hardest close to when the season actually ends, not before it starts.

Bikes sit in the middle. Post-Labor-Day clearance already has them 15% to 25% off to clear 2026 inventory before next year’s models arrive, and that markdown tends to hold or deepen slightly through fall.

How Do You Time a Purchase in Each Category?

Treat this as a short checklist by category rather than one blanket rule — the right move for a laptop and the right move for a jacket are opposites right now.

Check today’s price against last month’s, not against Black Friday

Use a price-history tool on the specific laptop or appliance model. If today’s price is already close to or below what it sold for last Black Friday, stop waiting.

Lock in electronics before the next earnings cycle

Component price increases tend to show up at retail within one to two manufacturing cycles. Buying an electronics purchase you already planned to make this quarter, rather than in November, sidesteps most of that increase.

Compare the Ulta sale terms against your actual wish list

Not everything in the 21 Days of Beauty event is discounted on the same day — it rotates daily and weekly deals. Check the specific brand you want before September 17, because a rotating sale does not guarantee your item is discounted on any single visit.

Skip fall clothing until the temperature actually drops

Retailers hold apparel margins through early fall because early-season buyers pay full price for new arrivals. The real clothing discounts land closer to when the weather forces the issue, not now.

When Does the Ulta 21 Days of Beauty Sale Actually End?

Ulta’s 21 Days of Beauty event runs through September 17, 2026, with select items marked up to 50% off, according to Ulta’s own promotion page.

When I compared the sale’s daily-deal structure against a flat storewide discount, 21 Days of Beauty is not that — it rotates specific brands on specific days, so the 50% off tag does not apply to everything in the store at once.

Two days out from the close, this is close-out territory. Anything on a wish list that has not shown up as a daily or weekly deal yet needs checking now, not next week.

What Are Shoppers Getting Wrong About This Year’s Sales?

The biggest mistake is applying last year’s playbook — wait for Black Friday — to a price increase that is not seasonal. A markdown calendar does not help when the underlying component cost has gone up structurally.

Most people skip this and regret it.

A second mistake is treating Ulta’s rotating event like a fixed storewide sale and assuming a wish-list item will eventually get discounted before the 17th. Rotating deals do not work that way — a brand that has not appeared yet may not appear again before the event closes.

A third: buying fall clothing early because ‘the fall sale is on.’ Early-season apparel markdowns are usually shallow compared to what shows up once the season is actually underway.

FAQ

Will Black Friday 2026 still have any laptop deals at all?

Yes, but the discounts are likely to be measured against a higher starting price than usual, since Gartner’s forecast has manufacturers passing along a 17% cost increase before any Black Friday markdown is applied.

Does the memory price surge affect phones as much as laptops?

Gartner projects a smaller but still real impact on phones, with prices rising around 13% versus the 17% forecast for PCs, since phones use less memory per device than laptops.

Is the Ulta 21 Days of Beauty discount the same every day?

No. The event rotates daily and weekly deals across different brands rather than discounting the entire store at once, so the specific product needs to appear as a featured deal before September 17 to get the advertised markdown.

Sources

• The Register — Coverage of Gartner’s 2026 Memory Price Forecast
• Ulta Beauty — 21 Days of Beauty Official Promotion Page
• Tech Times — Best Buy Labor Day Laptop Sale Coverage (September 1, 2026)

Fact-checked based on public sources as of September 15, 2026. Prices and sale dates reflect information available at publish time and may change.