FuturesAI Hit Rate: How Long a Losing Streak Gets
Short answer: At the 45.9% hit rate on FuturesAI’s public scoreboard, a run of five misses in a row is not a freak event. Over 100 predictions it is about a 90% chance. The size of that run’s damage depends on how much you risk per trade. Plan for the streak before it happens.
Everyone remembers the winners. The losing streak is what ends accounts.
This post turns a published hit rate into streak odds and drawdowns. It is plain probability, not a prediction, and it assumes nothing about what any signal will do next.
Educational content, not investment advice. Leveraged trading can lose the full principal. FuturesAI says its AI signals are observation scores and not buy or sell recommendations. Hit rates are past results and do not guarantee anything.
What This Works Out
- What hit rate does the scoreboard report?
- How likely is a run of misses?
- How often will a long streak appear?
- What does a streak cost at different risk sizes?
- What does a streak mean for the sample you are judging?
- A Streak Plan You Can Write Down Today
What hit rate does the scoreboard report?
FuturesAI’s public scoreboard shows an AI hit rate of 45.9% (130 of 283 graded predictions) and an average return of -0.28% per prediction before fees, as of its last automatic check on October 21, 2026 (futuresai.io scoreboard, read October 25, 2026).
When I checked the page, I found that its totals do not line up perfectly. It also lists 298 graded predictions, and the per-market counts add up to 137 hits, not 130. I use the 45.9% headline rate below, and the exact figure is less important than the shape of the result.
The page defines a hit as the actual move staying inside the predicted zone. It also reports crypto at 58.8% on 80 graded predictions, a smaller sample.
How likely is a run of misses?
With a 45.9% hit rate, each prediction misses 54.1% of the time, so the chance that a specific stretch of k predictions are all misses is 0.541 raised to the power k.
| Misses in a row (k) | Chance for one specific stretch | Rounded as 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 15.8% | 6 |
| 4 | 8.6% | 12 |
| 5 | 4.6% | 22 |
| 6 | 2.5% | 40 |
| 8 | 0.73% | 136 |
| 10 | 0.21% | 466 |
One run of 10 sounds remote at 0.21%. That figure applies to one particular stretch. You are not watching one stretch.
How often will a long streak appear?
Across 100 predictions at a 45.9% hit rate, the chance of at least one run of five misses is about 90%, and of at least one run of eight is about 28% (own calculation, standard run probability).
| Predictions followed | At least one run of 5 misses | At least one run of 8 | At least one run of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 68% | 14% | 4% |
| 100 | 90% | 28% | 9% |
| 300 | 99.9% | 64% | 25% |
Here is where people get tripped up. The longer you follow a source, the more certain a bad run becomes, even when nothing about the source has changed.
What does a streak cost at different risk sizes?
If every trade risks the same fixed share of your account, a run of k losing trades shrinks the account to (1 minus the risk share) raised to the power k, so a five-loss run costs about 4.9% at 1% risk, 9.6% at 2% and 22.6% at 5%.
| Risk per trade | After 5 losses | After 8 losses | After 10 losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of account | -4.9% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| 2% of account | -9.6% | -14.9% | -18.3% |
| 5% of account | -22.6% | -33.7% | -40.1% |
The table assumes a full loss of the risked amount on each trade. A leveraged position with no stop can lose more than you planned to risk, which is why the risk share has to be set by the stop, not by hope.
Honestly, the 5% row is the one most people live in without admitting it.
What does a streak mean for the sample you are judging?
A single streak of misses says almost nothing about a source with fewer than a few hundred graded predictions, because at 283 the margin of error on a hit rate near 50% is roughly plus or minus 6 points (own calculation).
When I compared that margin with the 80-prediction crypto subset, I noticed that the range roughly doubles, to about plus or minus 11 points. That cuts both ways. A bad run does not prove a signal is broken. A good run does not prove it works. The honest summary of 283 graded predictions is a wide range that includes coin-flip territory.
A Streak Plan You Can Write Down Today
- Pick your risk per trade first, and cap it low enough that ten losses in a row is survivable.
- Write the drawdown you cannot accept, then use the table to find the loss count that reaches it.
- Decide in advance what a pause looks like after that many losses.
- Judge any source on hundreds of graded predictions, not on the last five.
- Check the live scoreboard yourself, since the figures here were read on October 25, 2026 and will change.
Do it before the first loss, not after the fifth.
FAQ
How likely is a run of five misses at a 45.9% hit rate?
About 4.6% for any given five predictions in a row, and about 90% that at least one such run shows up somewhere in 100 predictions. These are standard probability calculations using the 45.9% hit rate on FuturesAI’s scoreboard (checked October 25, 2026), not a forecast of any trade.
Does a low hit rate mean a strategy loses money?
Not by itself. Profit depends on the size of wins against the size of losses as well as how often each happens. The scoreboard reports an average return per prediction of -0.28% before fees as of its October 21, 2026 check, which is the figure that matters for results.
Is FuturesAI a source of trading advice?
No. FuturesAI’s own site says its AI signals are observation scores and not buy or sell recommendations, and that nothing there is an invitation to invest.
Sources
- FuturesAI: public prediction scoreboard
- FuturesAI: service overview and disclaimers
- FuturesAI: exchange payback rates
🔗 Related guides
Scoreboard figures read on October 25, 2026 (last site check October 21, 2026). Streak and drawdown numbers are hypothetical arithmetic, not results or predictions. Not investment advice.
