FuturesAI Signals: Filter Them With Real Hit Rates
Short answer: FuturesAI’s own scoreboard shows 130 hits in 282 graded AI predictions through October 21, 2026, a 46.1% hit rate, with an average return of -0.25% per prediction before fees. That is the honest baseline. Filter any signal by sample size, market, and cost before you act on it.
A signal service that shows its misses is rare. Use that, instead of trusting a score.
Below: the real scoreboard numbers, what 80 predictions can and cannot tell you, and a four-question filter you can run on any signal.
Educational content, not investment advice. Leveraged trading can lose the full principal. FuturesAI says its content is for information and not a buy or sell recommendation, and that past hit rates do not guarantee future returns. The ranges below are my own statistics, not FuturesAI figures.
What We Check
- What does the FuturesAI scoreboard actually show?
- How many predictions make a hit rate believable?
- Is one market’s strong number real?
- What does the benchmark gap say?
- How do you filter any signal in four questions?
- The Version That Survives a Bad Month
What does the FuturesAI scoreboard actually show?
FuturesAI’s public scoreboard reported a 46.1% hit rate for its AI predictions, 130 hits out of 282 graded, with 30 more still pending, as of its last automatic check on October 21, 2026.
When I checked the scoreboard page, I found that predictions run from roughly August 22 to October 15, 2026, and that each one is priced at the close on its prediction date and compared with the close on the grading date. Fees are not subtracted, and average returns assume equal-sized trades.
A hit, per the page, means the price stayed within the predicted zone. That is a different bar from “you made money,” and the two can disagree.
How many predictions make a hit rate believable?
A hit rate near 50% needs about 385 graded predictions to carry a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points at 95% confidence, by the standard binomial formula.
That is a rule of thumb, not a FuturesAI claim. It applies to any signal source, human or machine.
| Margin of error you want on a hit rate near 50% | Graded predictions needed |
|---|---|
| +/- 10 points | 97 |
| +/- 5 points | 385 |
| +/- 3 points | 1,068 |
The whole scoreboard, at 282, is a little short of the plus-or-minus-5 mark. Every sub-group is smaller still, which matters in the next section.
Is one market’s strong number real?
FuturesAI’s crypto predictions show a 58.8% hit rate on 80 graded predictions, but the 95% range of 48.0% to 69.5% still contains 50%, so the sample cannot separate that result from luck.
This is the table that matters. Every row is the scoreboard’s own hit count, with my range added.
| Group (scoreboard, graded through Oct 21, 2026) | Hits / graded | Hit rate | 95% range (own calculation) | Distance from 50% in standard errors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All graded AI predictions | 130/282 | 46.1% | 40.3% to 51.9% | -1.31 |
| Crypto | 47/80 | 58.8% | 48.0% to 69.5% | +1.59 |
| U.S. stocks | 44/102 | 43.1% | 33.5% to 52.7% | -1.40 |
| Domestic (Korean) stocks | 46/115 | 40.0% | 31.0% to 49.0% | -2.19 |
| Up predictions | 91/186 | 48.9% | 41.7% to 56.1% | -0.29 |
| Down predictions | 46/111 | 41.4% | 32.3% to 50.6% | -1.83 |
Notice the pattern. Crypto looks best and also has the smallest sample. Domestic stocks look worst at 40.0% on 115. Crypto’s high number cannot be separated from chance on 80 predictions. Domestic stocks are the one row whose range, 31.0% to 49.0%, sits entirely below 50%, though that is still a hit-in-zone measure and not a loss measure.
Honestly, that is the useful lesson: the market with the best headline number is the one you should trust least until the sample grows.
What does the benchmark gap say?
On FuturesAI’s scoreboard, the average return per prediction was -0.25% against a market benchmark of +3.37% over the same predictions, a gap of -3.61 percentage points, before any trading fees.
| Scoreboard figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Average return per prediction (no fees) | -0.25% |
| Market benchmark over the same predictions | +3.37% |
| Gap | -3.61 percentage points (page figure) |
I noticed that this is the line most dashboards would bury. A hit rate can look fine while the return trails a simple hold of the market. Both numbers belong in the same sentence.
Fees only push it lower. If you want to see how much, the break-even win rate worked out here shows a 1% stop and 1:1 target needing 55.5% at listed taker fees.
How do you filter any signal in four questions?
To filter a trading signal, ask four questions in order: how many graded cases, what exactly counts as a hit, what is the return against a benchmark, and what do your own costs do to it.
- Sample: fewer than about 385 graded cases means treat the hit rate as a range, not a number.
- Definition: does a hit mean price direction, a price zone, or realized profit?
- Benchmark: compare the average return with simply holding the market.
- Cost: subtract your fees and slippage, then recompute.
Run those on the FuturesAI scoreboard today and the answer is a data source worth watching, not a system to follow. That is a fair reading of the page’s own disclaimers.
The Version That Survives a Bad Month
Keep a small log: date, signal score, your action, result after costs. After a few dozen rows, you know your own number instead of borrowing someone else’s.
If you do use the platform, the one place it earns its keep without any prediction is the fee payback on partner exchanges. That is a cost cut you can verify on your own statements. See the payback page for current rates.
Tips
- Read the sample size next to every hit rate before reading the percentage.
- Check how the source defines a hit; direction, zone and profit are three different things.
- Compare average return with the market benchmark, not with zero.
- Keep your own log of signal, action and result after costs.
Warnings
- A hit rate from a small sample can swing widely; the 95% ranges above are wide on purpose.
- Past hit rates do not guarantee future returns, as the scoreboard itself says.
- Scoreboard figures change daily; read the live page.
- Leveraged trading can lose the full principal. This is not investment advice.
FAQ
What does a trading signal hit rate of 46.1% mean?
On FuturesAI’s scoreboard, 130 of 282 graded AI predictions were hits through October 21, 2026, and a hit means the price stayed within the predicted zone, so it is not the same as a profitable trade.
How many graded predictions do I need before trusting a hit rate?
For a hit rate near 50%, about 385 graded predictions give a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points at 95% confidence, and about 97 give plus or minus 10 points, by the standard binomial formula.
Can I rely on one market’s hit rate when the others are lower?
Not on its own. Crypto shows 58.8% on 80 predictions, but the 95% range of 48.0% to 69.5% still includes 50%, so treat it as a lead to keep tracking, not a result.
Sources
🔗 Related guides
Scoreboard figures read from futuresai.io on October 23, 2026 (data through October 21). Ranges are my own calculations. Not investment advice.
